Today's state-of-the-art machine vision models are vulnerable to image corruptions like blurring or compression artefacts, limiting their performance in many real-world applications. We here argue that popular benchmarks to measure model robustness against common corruptions (like ImageNet-C) underestimate model robustness in many (but not all) application scenarios. The key insight is that in many scenarios, multiple unlabeled examples of the corruptions are available and can be used for unsupervised online adaptation. Replacing the activation statistics estimated by batch normalization on the training set with the statistics of the corrupted images consistently improves the robustness across 25 different popular computer vision models. Using the corrected statistics, ResNet-50 reaches 62.2% mCE on ImageNet-C compared to 76.7% without adaptation. With the more robust DeepAugment+AugMix model, we improve the state of the art achieved by a ResNet50 model up to date from 53.6% mCE to 45.4% mCE. Even adapting to a single sample improves robustness for the ResNet-50 and AugMix models, and 32 samples are sufficient to improve the current state of the art for a ResNet-50 architecture. We argue that results with adapted statistics should be included whenever reporting scores in corruption benchmarks and other out-of-distribution generalization settings.

Distribution shift between the training domain and the test domain poses a key challenge for modern machine learning. An extensively studied instance is the \emph{covariate shift}, where the marginal distribution of covariates differs across domains, while the conditional distribution of outcome remains the same. The doubly-robust (DR) estimator, recently introduced by \cite{kato2023double}, combines the density ratio estimation with a pilot regression model and demonstrates asymptotic normality and $\sqrt{n}$-consistency, even when the pilot estimates converge slowly. However, the prior arts has focused exclusively on deriving asymptotic results and has left open the question of non-asymptotic guarantees for the DR estimator. This paper establishes the first non-asymptotic learning bounds for the DR covariate shift adaptation. Our main contributions are two-fold: (\romannumeral 1) We establish \emph{structure-agnostic} high-probability upper bounds on the excess target risk of the DR estimator that depend only on the $L^2$-errors of the pilot estimates and the Rademacher complexity of the model class, without assuming specific procedures to obtain the pilot estimate, and (\romannumeral 2) under \emph{well-specified parameterized models}, we analyze the DR covariate shift adaptation based on modern techniques for non-asymptotic analysis of MLE, whose key terms governed by the Fisher information mismatch term between the source and target distributions. Together, these findings bridge asymptotic efficiency properties and a finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization bounds, providing a comprehensive theoretical underpinnings for the DR covariate shift adaptation.

Therefore, estimating how well a given model might perform on the new data is an important step toward reliable ML applications. This is very challenging, however, as the data distribution can change in flexible ways, and we may not have any labels on the new data, which is often the case in monitoring settings.

Today's state-of-the-art machine vision models are vulnerable to image corruptions like blurring or compression artefacts, limiting their performance in many real-world applications. We here argue that popular benchmarks to measure model robustness against common corruptions (like ImageNet-C) underestimate model robustness in many (but not all) application scenarios. The key insight is that in many scenarios, multiple unlabeled examples of the corruptions are available and can be used for unsupervised online adaptation. Replacing the activation statistics estimated by batch normalization on the training set with the statistics of the corrupted images consistently improves the robustness across 25 different popular computer vision models. Using the corrected statistics, ResNet-50 reaches 62.2% mCE on ImageNet-C compared to 76.7% without adaptation.

Many existing covariate shift adaptation methods estimate sample weights to be used in the risk estimation in order to mitigate the gap between the source and the target distribution. However, non-parametrically estimating the optimal weights typically involves computationally expensive hyper-parameter tuning that is crucial to the final performance. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric approach to covariate shift adaptation which avoids estimating weights and has no hyper-parameter to be tuned. Our basic idea is to label unlabeled target data according to the $k$-nearest neighbors in the source dataset. Our analysis indicates that setting $k = 1$ is an optimal choice. Thanks to this property, there is no need to tune any hyper-parameters, unlike other non-parametric methods. Moreover, our method achieves a running time quasi-linear in the sample size with a theoretical guarantee, for the first time in the literature to the best of our knowledge. Our results include sharp rates of convergence for estimating the joint probability distribution of the target data. In particular, the variance of our estimators has the same rate of convergence as for standard parametric estimation despite their non-parametric nature. Our numerical experiments show that proposed method brings drastic reduction in the running time with accuracy comparable to that of the state-of-the-art methods.

Consider a scenario where we have access to train data with both covariates and outcomes while test data only contains covariates. In this scenario, our primary aim is to predict the missing outcomes of the test data. With this objective in mind, we train parametric regression models under a covariate shift, where covariate distributions are different between the train and test data. For this problem, existing studies have proposed covariate shift adaptation via importance weighting using the density ratio. This approach averages the train data losses, each weighted by an estimated ratio of the covariate densities between the train and test data, to approximate the test-data risk. Although it allows us to obtain a test-data risk minimizer, its performance heavily relies on the accuracy of the density ratio estimation. Moreover, even if the density ratio can be consistently estimated, the estimation errors of the density ratio also yield bias in the estimators of the regression model's parameters of interest. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce a doubly robust estimator for covariate shift adaptation via importance weighting, which incorporates an additional estimator for the regression function. Leveraging double machine learning techniques, our estimator reduces the bias arising from the density ratio estimation errors. We demonstrate the asymptotic distribution of the regression parameter estimator. Notably, our estimator remains consistent if either the density ratio estimator or the regression function is consistent, showcasing its robustness against potential errors in density ratio estimation. Finally, we confirm the soundness of our proposed method via simulation studies.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates $x$) of training and testing samples $\mathrm{p}_\text{tr}(x)$ and $\mathrm{p}_\text{te}(x)$ are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio $\mathrm{p}_\text{te}(x)/\mathrm{p}_\text{tr}(x)$ to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio $\mathrm{p}_\text{tr}(x)/\mathrm{p}_\text{te}(x)$ to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Many machine learning methods assume that the training and test data follow the same distribution. However, in the real world, this assumption is very often violated. In particular, the phenomenon that the marginal distribution of the data changes is called covariate shift, one of the most important research topics in machine learning. We show that the well-known family of covariate shift adaptation methods is unified in the framework of information geometry. Furthermore, we show that parameter search for geometrically generalized covariate shift adaptation method can be achieved efficiently. Numerical experiments show that our generalization can achieve better performance than the existing methods it encompasses.

When training and test samples follow different input distributions (i.e., the situation called \emph{covariate shift}), the maximum likelihood estimator is known to lose its consistency. For regaining consistency, the log-likelihood terms need to be weighted according to the \emph{importance} (i.e., the ratio of test and training input densities). Thus, accurately estimating the importance is one of the key tasks in covariate shift adaptation. A naive approach is to first estimate training and test input densities and then estimate the importance by the ratio of the density estimates. However, since density estimation is a hard problem, this approach tends to perform poorly especially in high dimensional cases. In this paper, we propose a direct importance estimation method that does not require the input density estimates.

This paper investigates when the importance weighting (IW) correction is needed to address covariate shift, a common situation in supervised learning where the input distributions of training and test data differ. Classic results show that the IW correction is needed when the model is parametric and misspecified. In contrast, recent results indicate that the IW correction may not be necessary when the model is nonparametric and well-specified. We examine the missing case in the literature where the model is nonparametric and misspecified, and show that the IW correction is needed for obtaining the best approximation of the true unknown function for the test distribution. We do this by analyzing IW-corrected kernel ridge regression, covering a variety of settings, including parametric and nonparametric models, well-specified and misspecified settings, and arbitrary weighting functions.